A LITTLE CONTEXT- The prophetic nature of the Oscars
Every week, I have the pleasure of creating special experiences around people’s favorite movies. At my company, REEL EXPERIENCES, we believe that hidden within your top 10 movies is a treasure map that will surprise you with a visual articulation of what’s in your head and heart. Our theory is that if a movie moves you, then it must be connected to your personal narrative. But that’s a person’s top 10 movies. Could the same be true if we looked on a macro level at the themes coming out of the Oscars? Well, for the last six years I’ve been exploring, not just the Oscar winner but the palette of Best Picture nominees to discover what they say about our collective story, as a culture and country. Each year, I am amazed at how the Oscars seem to forecast current events that take place the subsequent year. In addition, the Oscars seem to be on the forefront of thematic trends that appear in the subsequent year’s box office. This is footnoted by the fact that no human being could control how the Oscars are foreshadowing our cultural narrative. So while you may read this and think that this is some liberal agenda orchestrated by the Hollywood elite, please note movies take years to go from script to screen. On top of that, there is no way to predict that a film will be chosen as an Oscar nominee. And, just like we look at the collective power of a person’s top 10 movies to find common themes, the following insights are based on threads that emerge from the collective power of all the nominees (and not just the winner). So with this, I’d like to look at the 2019 Oscar nominees, but, first, rewind the clock to give you a little context to the prophetic nature of the Oscars to this point.
THE OSCARS PRE-ELECTION- Did the Oscars forecast Trump?
From when I started interpreting the Oscars in 2014 until 2017, most of the Oscar nominees, as well as films in the box office were asking the dramatic question- “Will we survive?” (I.e.- 2014 winner- 12 YEARS A SLAVE) Or “Will we stage a comeback?” (2015 winner- BIRDMAN) The answer to these questions found in the majority of films was that we could survive by our own genius, special skills and determination (i.e.- THEORY OF EVERYTHING, IMITATION GAME, or AMERICAN SNIPER). Films based on true stories flooded the Oscars and the box office, providing hope for our survival in real life heroes who lived among us. And then in 2016, almost every nominee seemed to have a corrupt or anti-establishment sentiment, with the best picture winner, SPOTLIGHT, showing us that the survival of our home might require taking down an institution that we hold dear. Three years of Oscars nominees, from 2014 to 2016, seem to stack up like building blocks towards the election of Donald Trump- a perceived reality star/hero from among us, with perceived special skills towards business and a determination to make America great again…and with an anti-establishment sentiment focused on taking down the institution of government/politics as we knew it.
2017 ELECTION AFTERMATH- A change in our dramatic question- Will We be a We?
In 2017, Trump was inaugurated and the Oscar nominees seemed to all be speaking a new dramatic question. And this new dramatic question could not have been better timed. Again, it is important and somewhat miraculous to note that all of the nominees for the 2017 Oscars were released in 2016, which means that most were conceived several years prior to what would happen in the election. As we were witnessing a nation beginning to fracture from within, the dramatic question of the Oscar nominees in 2017 was “Will we be a we?”…or another words- will we come together. And the answer to this question from Oscar nominees like HIDDEN FIGURES, LION, MANCHESTER BY THE SEA and the winner, MOONLIGHT in 2017 was very clear. We needed to resist nostalgia of the past (LA LA LAND) but instead turn to the past to answer unanswered questions, to get a more complete narrative or even confront our sins.
2017 IN AMERICA- Did the Oscars forecast Charlottesville and #METOO?
Culturally, a call for America to look at the past was palatable. A wake up call to the countless killings of black people by police surfaced a broader issue of systemic racial inequality. All of this pointed to the very themes of revisiting the past that the 2017 Oscar nominees were suggesting. And then Charlottesville happened, in which the spotlight shined on a need to answer unanswered questions about the narratives being expressed by statues erected in our hometown squares. The kneeling of NFL players also shined a light onto people of color who didn’t feel a part of the majority culture’s narrative. And then finally the #METOO movement was the ultimate surfacing of skeletons and sins of the past, committed by old white men with power and privilege. Meanwhile, the box office of 2017 saw such hits as BEAUTY AND THE BEAST, COCO, THOR RAGNAROK and GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 2, all of which dealt with sins of the past and curses to the land caused by an arrogant male ruler and, with the latter two, as a result of colonizing new lands and subjugating people. It was clear that addressing the past, especially older white males, was the first building block towards answering the question raised by the 2017 Oscars of “Will we be a We?”
THE OSCARS IN 2018- Will be a We? Part 2- It takes a woman
The question of “Will we be a We?” had another answer from 2018 Oscar nominees. While many nominees still dealt with getting a proper narrative of the past, the glaring addition to these films was the welcomed presence of women. Nominees such as THE POST, THREE BILLBOARDS and LADY BIRD, highlighted women taking agency and provoking change. Again, the miracle of this timing is that the #METOO movement, which also is about women taking agency and provoking change, was only launched in the fall of 2017, way after all of these films were produced. The winner, SHAPE OF WATER, told the story of a woman who literally does not have a voice, and yet still takes agency and provokes change by saving the perceived “monster.” The answer for our dramatic question of unity seemed to hinge on the need to fight for those who don’t have a voice, specifically women, and watch as they provoke change. In addition, there was a secondary theme of words- both spoken and unspoken (DARKEST HOUR, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME and DUNKIRK) that seemed ancillary…until the events of 2018 proved otherwise.
2018 IN AMERICA- Did the Oscars foreshadow the blue wave of women?
So how did both these Oscar themes play out culturally in 2018? First of all, we saw an unprecedented number of films at the box office with a flood of female characters taking on traditional male roles and women as avenging angels (for examples, see my article called WOMEN OF THE YEAR IN MOVIES). And in culture, with the mid-term elections, we saw a historic number of women 1st time elected to political office…many of them Women of Color. It goes without saying that 2018 was the year that women were given a new voice. As for the ancillary theme of spoken and unspoken word, we saw how tweeted words could lead to firing (Roseanne, James Gunn, Mary Bono, Elon Musk) or even being forced to step down from hosting the Oscars (Kevin Hart). And the image of a young boy in the face of an Native American, both saying nothing, would cause others to fill in their own words for what was being unspoken, resulting in death threats and a rush to judgment…all the while our president has no filter with his words.
FINALLY 2019!- Will we be a We?- Part 3- the distribution of power
So, here we are in 2019! After realizing we need to look at the past and that we need to give voice to those without a voice, let’s look what the 2019 best picture nominees are telling us about the third building block to becoming a WE. This year, the fact that three movies take on black/white race issues (all three with the color “black” or “green” in the title), one movie features a latinx perspective, two feature LGBTQ love stories, two have women being elevated and one is a cautionary tale of a old white male abusing power…all of these, on just a surface level, speak to the inclusion of the “other” as a key to our unity.
But, for me, the most pronounced theme from this year’s nominees started with BLACK PANTHER! This film surged into the cultural zeitgeist and became the litmus test of “woke.” Released in February of 2018, BLACK PANTHER was one of those films that seemed to prophetically usher in a prominent theme that the other nominees would amplify- the idea that there needs to be a shift in power in order for us to become a “we”. This year’s nominees, which include BLACK PANTHER, point to power dynamics that are bubbling beneath our cultural surface.
POWER PLAYS IN THE 2019 OSCAR NOMINEES
Consider the jockeying for power that you see in the people surrounding power/fame in THE FAVOURITE, VICE and BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY. And with films such as BLACKKKLANSMAN and GREEN BOOK, you see the systemic unbalanced power structures that have scarred our past. And in almost every nominee, there is a rise to power, fame or visibility, as demonstrated in A STAR IS BORN and ROMA, in which the female leads go from being unseen to seen. The answer to “will we be a we?” for this year’s Oscar nominees is found in the need to deal with the barriers created by race, class and gender so that more power is shared by the “others.” Let’s quickly look at how each of the Oscar nominees play a part in this resounding theme of what I call “power to the other people.”
BLACK PANTHER AND POWER
An unseen, small African county has a secret resource that provides its technological advancement and power. But their privilege comes with a cost- isolation from the rest of the world and its injustices. The film’s message lands on confronting sins of the past and realizing your power must be shared with others to become a “we.” Of course, this simplifies such a beautiful film that envisions what a world might be like for black people if they were not colonized or enslaved and the tension between provoking power changes through revolution versus peaceful distribution of power.
BLACKKKLANSMEN AND POWER
The 1st black policeman in Colorado Springs infiltrates and exposes another hidden world and its power- the KKK. Director, Spike Lee, does not hold back on linking his narrative to the events in Charlottesville, asking can we be a “we” when there are unseen powers that can suddenly unite to become a force of hate and destruction. The film also has a small theme found in BLACK PANTHER and GREEN BOOK, in which a black person is questioning what it means to be black, especially as they have to code switch within a white world.
THE FAVOURITE AND POWER
As a foreshadowing of what the upcoming political primaries might look like, in THE FAVOURITE, we see a triangle of women, a stew of passion and power plays. The constant wounding of one other, all over proximity to power is more tragically cautionary than comic, resulting in a painful lack of “we” in the end. And this film picks up on a theme found in almost every nominee, in which the powerful and privileged (the Queen) are really just “seemingly privileged.” They are actually just isolated and lonely in their power, suffering from a deeper wounding from a prior loss (i.e.- the Queen lost all the of the children she tried to bear).
ROMA, GREEN BOOK AND POWER
In ROMA and in GREEN BOOK, barriers of culture/class are explored, as the person hired to serve and the person doing the hiring take a journey of understanding and healing. In ROMA, women have to take agency because men are acting irresponsibly. A husband leaves his wife. A would-be anarchist leaves a poor housekeeper pregnant. In the end, power returns to both women as the “seemingly privileged” wife sees and embraces her indigenous servant, creating a “we” which heals loss, loneliness and isolation. In GREEN BOOK, a classical pianist embarks on a tour in the Deep South and realizes quickly that his privilege is not a safeguard against the bias towards his skin color. The barriers of race and class are toppled as he and his Italian bodyguard become a “we” on this buddy adventure, ending the central character’s isolation and struggle to understand his identity. The film shows the power dynamics of the early 60’s that keep this black musician from having a seat at the dining table of a white country club (while it’s constituency doesn’t mind being entertained by his music in another room). Once again, this film is a reflection of the reoccurring theme of power shifting so that “others” can have a seat at the table.
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY, A STAR IS BORN AND POWER
Along with our main character in GREEN BOOK as a pianist, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY and A STAR IS BORN, show us that music can be a key to voice, fame and power. A STAR IS BORN reverberates the theme of the 2018 Oscars, showing a woman finding her voice. Much like Tom Hanks’ character in last year’s THE POST, Bradley Cooper’s character is a positive portrayal of a white male who is spurring a women on to lead and embrace her agency. However, A STAR IS BORN turns tragically cautionary as power and fame distort the relational balance, resulting in a downward spiral for the white male as the female ascends to his former power and fame. His isolation and loneliness spawns a crushing ending for the “we” that we long for. IN BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY, the desire for the iconic band, Queen, to stay a “we” and sing at Live-Aid drives this “rise to fame and power” story. But it’s really a more intimate question of “will we be a we?” displayed in the relationship between the band’s lead singer, Freddie Mercury and his lifelong female love that ushers in a fascinating character study of privilege/power that masks loneliness and a search for identity. Like the Queen in THE FAVOURITE, Freddie Mercury’s fame ensures that he will be surrounded by those seeking the lure of power at his expense. And like BLACKKKLANSMAN and GREEN BOOK, inner healing comes from embracing one’s cultural identity, as well as for Freddie, his sexual identity.
VICE AND POWER (aka- Power as a vice)
And finally, the movie VICE, which has been the subject of much controversy on both sides of the cultural and political aisles. Along with BLACKKKLANSMAN, GREEN BOOK, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY and ROMA, VICE claims to be “based on a true story.” The subject of much of the controversy is in how true this narrative is. While other true stories seek to inspire us with characters who could be seen as heroic, VICE is the opposite. In almost mockumentary style, the makers of VICE show us the unbelievable account of Dick Cheney’s rise from humble beginnings to exerting executive power. While all the other Oscar nominees clearly herald inclusion of the voiceless, VICE shows us how the other half lives. And, even if only half of the movie is true, the picture is not pretty. It’s a cautionary reminder that the powerful can often leverage “making America great again” at the expense of those of a different class (i.e.- military families) and for pure profit for the powers that be. While this movie is clearly agenda laden and often caustic, there’s a quote from the movie that stood out to me- “when you have power, people will always try to take it from you.” And this statement coming from an old white male of power and privilege (who is still alive), may be the best articulation of the impending power struggle that these Oscar nominees seem to be predicting.
MUSINGS ON WHAT THIS MEANS TO AMERICA
So just like the 3 years of Oscars nominees (2014–2016) were building blocks to the election, I believe that these last 3 years of Oscar nominees are building blocks to finally answer the question of will we come together. To summarize again, in order to become a “we”, we must address the past and give voice to voiceless- specifically women to provoke change. We must get control of our spoken and unspoken words and we must seek to share power to the “other” people by breaking down barriers of class/culture/gender. As an older white male, I can see a great deal of work ahead for me and my counterparts to embrace this path towards unity, and it will come with a lot of wrestling and resistance. I call this power struggle- “the impending death of white male dominance.” While Donald Trump is the last grasp for power by what was deemed the greatest generation, the birth pains of the next greatest generation are being felt as we transition from power held by the majority white culture to include all of the people who have been marginalized in its wake…from women to people of color to indigenous people. The promise of America’s mantra that all men (in a gender neutral sense) are created equal is evolving once again but this next evolution will not be fully realized without a power struggle for not just equality but equity. To steal the multi-faceted metaphor of Wakanda from BLACK PANTHER- Wakanda can be forever, but only if the people who have all the power of vibranium are willing to share it with the rest. I’m not suggesting that our future is one that requires a Killmonger to overturn power and cause a violent reversal of power, but instead a realization that inclusion is and has always been liberating. But it requires a change in the balance of powers…which as VICE proclaims makes the “powers that be” feel like someone is trying to take it from them. The reality found in so many nominees is that privilege actually is false and hollow. The rate of loneliness in America is skyrocketing. Most importantly, it isolates us from the benefits of being a “we.”
FUTURE CASTING THE THEMES OF THIS YEAR’S OSCARS
As to this upcoming year, I have no idea how these themes of power in the 2019 Oscar nominees will play out. Maybe it will be embodied in the power plays that will take place in advance of the 2020 election, especially as more women take agency and seek to provoke change. Who knows if it will be embodied in the power struggles between parties, as impeachment cries get louder? However, maybe it will manifest itself in some unexpected shift in global powers. Or could these themes of breaking down barriers of class/culture/gender already be incarnated in the power struggles over a wall? Could the cries to make America great again be at the expense of those of a different class? Could the walls we are building only further isolate ourselves as a nation? More importantly, could the walls we are building against one another inside this nation isolate us further from one another? In the words of Black Panther- “the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers.” Or as Abraham Lincoln stated- “A house divided against itself cannot stand.” Will something happen this year that will finally bring us together as a “we”? Rest assured, based on years past, there is a narrative that is being written for our culture and nation by an unseen power who must delight in using the best and brightest artists of our time as prophets and using the language of moving pictures as an unexpected source of insight.
